A mere two months in the past when the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach admonished him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was if his displays were a sign or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa appear strangely fragile – however right now the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their star man to save the day with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
