Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
